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The cloud does not represent data points, it is a visual representation of the uncertainty in the model itself and it underestimates the total uncertainty. It only captures the uncertainty of something akin to a population mean, or more precisely the uncertainty over the parameters of the deterministic estradiol curve. It does not capture the full distribution of outcomes in the population at large. This is bound to change in the future once a better representation of this uncertainty gets implemented (which would include the additional population variability around the deterministic curve).
The emerging consensus is that the pharmacokinetics of estradiol ester depots is highly variable and depends on many factors that are not well understood and rarely taken into account. Those factors can lead to vastly different outcomes and are not well represented, if at all, in the current models. Those include, among others, the ester concentration, the type of oil used, the proportion and type of excipients such as benzyl benzoate that are present in the formulation, the injection site, whether the depot is injected intramuscularly or subcutaneously, the injection depth, individual differences in metabolism, and the presence of other drugs. Some of those confounding factors are sometimes captured to an extent in the uncertainty of the models, but only when the data is abundant and spans multiple studies done under different conditions. This is, of course, generally not the case. Several of those factors also apply to transdermal, oral, and sublingual estradiol. I am actively working to improve and generalize the current models in ways that will better capture this variability, but ultimately their accuracy and scope will always be limited by the data available.
All pharmacokinetic data used to infer intramuscular models has been redigitized from scratch from the original studies mentioned in the tfs meta-analysis. We further split per-patient data into individual datasets when possible. See the full list of references for more information. Note that pharmacokinetic data for estradiol enanthate (een im) and estradiol undecylate (eun im) is substantially sparser than for the other esters. The data for estradiol enanthate comes entirely from studies on Perlutal from the 80s and 90s. The data for estradiol undecylate comes from two studies (Vermeulen 1975 and the 1975 thesis of Geppert) which both stopped measuring estradiol levels at the 2 week mark, thus preventing the model from capturing the full pharmacokinetic profile of the elimination phase and with it an accurate estimate of the terminal half-life.
The data behind the estradiol undecylate model for subcutaneous depots using castor oil (eun casubq) was inferred on top of the eun im model by augmenting it with very sparse self-reported community data. Its predictions are highly uncertain.
The once-weekly patch model (patch ow) and twice-weekly patch model (patch tw) were from two studies by Houssain et al. and drug labels of Climara, Mylan, and Menostar drug labels. References can be found here.. In light of knowledge gathered from self-reported community data, please be advised that both models excessively underestimate the uncertainty which should be close to 10 times larger. The models will be improved to better reflect this in the future. Currently there is no way to change the wearing period of the patch in the interface (i.e. they are fixed at 3½ and 7 days) but it is planned for the future.
The data for the menstrual cycle comes from Stricker et al. 2006. Download the E2/P/LH/FSH data.
Data for target ranges is based on guidance from WPATH Standards of Care, Version 8 in addition to the Endocrine Society's Clinical Practice Guideline.
Note regarding "inapproprite WPATH regimens" presets
In the WPATH Standards of Care (Appendix C, page S254), several hormone replacement therapy (HRT) regimens for transfeminine people are listed. However, some of these recommendations might not align with WPATH's own guidelines and could even be harmful. Here's a breakdown of the issues.
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